MIA
41%
@
April 13, 2026
ATL
59%
Pitching Matchup
MIA
Eury Perez
vs
ATL
Grant Holmes
Win Probability
| Source | MIA | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 40.7% | 59.3% |
| Simulation only | 45.4% | 54.6% |
| Elo ratings | 35.9% | 64.1% |
| Market (implied) | 42.4% | 57.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIA avg runs
4.8
ATL avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIA wins, Positive = ATL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 5.2% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 2.0% |
| ATL | 4.2% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIA
- Jakob Marsee
- Xavier Edwards
- Agustín Ramírez
- Liam Hicks
- Otto Lopez
- Owen Caissie
- Connor Norby
- Graham Pauley
- Javier Sanoja
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Mike Yastrzemski
- Ozzie Albies
- Dominic Smith
- Mauricio Dubón
- Jorge Mateo
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.99
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
81°F
Wind: 7 mph cross
Elo Ratings
MIA: 1500
ATL: 1577
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIA | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +126 | -148 |
| Bovada | +127 | -152 |
| BetMGM | +120 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +129 | -156 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |