TEX
45%
@
April 13, 2026
Athletics
55%
ML
Athletics ML (+114) — 55% win, +6.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
TEX
Nathan Eovaldi
vs
Athletics
Luis Severino
Win Probability
| Source | TEX | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| Simulation only | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Elo ratings | 44.1% | 55.9% |
| Market (implied) | 54.3% | 45.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TEX avg runs
5.0
Athletics avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TEX wins, Positive = Athletics wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 4.5% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.3% |
| Athletics | 4.8% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Wyatt Langford
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Joc Pederson
- Evan Carter
- Kyle Higashioka
- Josh Smith
- Ezequiel Duran
Athletics
- Lawrence Butler
- Nick Kurtz
- Shea Langeliers
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Jacob Wilson
- Jeff McNeil
- Max Muncy
- Carlos Cortes
- Denzel Clarke
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Elo Ratings
TEX: 1536
Athletics: 1554
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TEX | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -134 | +114 |
| Bovada | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -130 | +110 |
| DraftKings | -131 | +109 |
| Caesars | -130 | +110 |
Model Analysis
Athletics is getting plus-money at +114 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Luis Severino keeps Athletics competitive on the mound against Nathan Eovaldi.