WSN
52%
@
April 13, 2026
PIT
48%
ML
WSN ML (+188) — 52% win, +10.5% edge
Pitching Matchup
WSN
Cade Cavalli
vs
PIT
Paul Skenes
Win Probability
| Source | WSN | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| Simulation only | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| Elo ratings | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| Market (implied) | 33.6% | 66.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
WSN avg runs
4.7
PIT avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = WSN wins, Positive = PIT wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSN | 5.6% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| PIT | 5.5% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
WSN
- James Wood
- Luis García Jr.
- Brady House
- Daylen Lile
- CJ Abrams
- Nasim Nuñez
- Jorbit Vivas
- Drew Millas
- Jacob Young
PIT
- Oneil Cruz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Ryan O'Hearn
- Nick Yorke
- Nick Gonzales
- Spencer Horwitz
- Konnor Griffin
- Henry Davis
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.84
BB: 1.0
K: 0.92
Weather
Forecast
82°F
Wind: 11 mph out
Elo Ratings
WSN: 1549
PIT: 1476
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | WSN | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +188 | -225 |
| Bovada | +180 | -220 |
| BetMGM | +185 | -225 |
| DraftKings | +184 | -226 |
| Caesars | +185 | -225 |
Model Analysis
The market has WSN as a +188 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Cade Cavalli keeps WSN competitive on the mound against Paul Skenes. Pitcher's park suppresses the long ball.