CLE
52%
@
April 14, 2026
STL
48%
Pitching Matchup
CLE
Joseph Cantillo
vs
STL
Michael McGreevy
Win Probability
| Source | CLE | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| Simulation only | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Elo ratings | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| Market (implied) | 52.4% | 47.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CLE avg runs
4.7
STL avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CLE wins, Positive = STL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 5.8% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| STL | 5.3% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Chase DeLauter
- José Ramírez
- Kyle Manzardo
- Rhys Hoskins
- Juan Brito
- Bo Naylor
- Angel Martínez
- Brayan Rocchio
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Jordan Walker
- Masyn Winn
- Ramón Urías
- José Fermín
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.92
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
90°F
Wind: 14 mph in
Elo Ratings
CLE: 1579
STL: 1501
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CLE | STL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -120 | +102 |
| Bovada | -120 | +100 |
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings | -122 | +102 |
| Caesars | -120 | +100 |