COL
45%
@
April 14, 2026
HOU
55%
RL
COL +1.5 (-130) — 62% win, +7.0% edge
Pitching Matchup
COL
Michael Lorenzen
vs
HOU
Colton Gordon
Win Probability
| Source | COL | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| Simulation only | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| Elo ratings | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| Market (implied) | 37.3% | 62.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
COL avg runs
4.7
HOU avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = COL wins, Positive = HOU wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 5.9% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| HOU | 4.9% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
COL
- Tyler Freeman
- Brenton Doyle
- Hunter Goodman
- Ezequiel Tovar
- Jordan Beck
- Willi Castro
- Troy Johnston
- Kyle Karros
- Brett Sullivan
HOU
- Jose Altuve
- Yordan Alvarez
- Isaac Paredes
- Christian Walker
- Carlos Correa
- Cam Smith
- Joey Loperfido
- Yainer Diaz
- Taylor Trammell
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
COL: 1374
HOU: 1388
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | COL | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +154 | -184 |
| BetMGM | +154 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +159 | -194 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |
Model Analysis
COL is getting +1.5 at -130. The sim gives them a 63% chance of covering — 7.0% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.