LAA
39%
@
April 14, 2026
NYY
61%
Pitching Matchup
LAA
Reid Detmers
vs
NYY
Ryan Weathers
Win Probability
| Source | LAA | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| Simulation only | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| Elo ratings | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Market (implied) | 37.4% | 62.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAA avg runs
4.8
NYY avg runs
5.2
Avg total
10.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAA wins, Positive = NYY wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 5.2% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| NYY | 3.7% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Jo Adell
- Jorge Soler
- Vaughn Grissom
- Nolan Schanuel
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Yoán Moncada
- Bryce Teodosio
NYY
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Amed Rosario
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Randal Grichuk
- José Caballero
- Austin Wells
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.2
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
84°F
Wind: 13 mph out
Elo Ratings
LAA: 1474
NYY: 1547
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAA | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +154 | -184 |
| Bovada | +154 | -186 |
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 |
| DraftKings | +153 | -186 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |