SEA
47%
@
April 14, 2026
SDP
53%
Pitching Matchup
SEA
Bryan Woo
vs
SDP
Mike King
Win Probability
| Source | SEA | SDP |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| Simulation only | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| Elo ratings | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| Market (implied) | 52.8% | 47.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SEA avg runs
5.2
SDP avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SEA wins, Positive = SDP wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 4.2% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.3% |
| SDP | 5.1% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SEA
- Brendan Donovan
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Luke Raley
- J.P. Crawford
- Dominic Canzone
- Cole Young
SDP
- Ramón Laureano
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Jackson Merrill
- Manny Machado
- Xander Bogaerts
- Gavin Sheets
- Nick Castellanos
- Freddy Fermin
- Jake Cronenworth
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.93
HR: 1.05
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Elo Ratings
SEA: 1531
SDP: 1544
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SEA | SDP |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -122 | +104 |
| Bovada | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings | -122 | +102 |
| Caesars | -125 | +105 |