TBR
55%
@
April 14, 2026
CWS
45%
Pitching Matchup
TBR
Shane McClanahan
vs
CWS
Noah Schultz
Win Probability
| Source | TBR | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Simulation only | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| Elo ratings | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| Market (implied) | 55.8% | 44.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TBR avg runs
4.7
CWS avg runs
4.2
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TBR wins, Positive = CWS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | 5.3% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| CWS | 6.3% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TBR
- Yandy Díaz
- Ryan Vilade
- Jonathan Aranda
- Junior Caminero
- Ben Williamson
- Jonny DeLuca
- Cedric Mullins
- Nick Fortes
- Taylor Walls
CWS
- Miguel Vargas
- Chase Meidroth
- Munetaka Murakami
- Edgar Quero
- Colson Montgomery
- Tanner Murray
- Luisangel Acuña
- Andrew Benintendi
- Derek Hill
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.99
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
77°F
Wind: 14 mph in
Elo Ratings
TBR: 1500
CWS: 1410
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TBR | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -136 | +116 |
| Bovada | -142 | +119 |
| BetMGM | -140 | +115 |
| DraftKings | -143 | +119 |
| Caesars | -140 | +118 |