TEX
48%
@
April 14, 2026
Athletics
52%
Pitching Matchup
TEX
MacKenzie Gore
vs
Athletics
Jeffrey Springs
Win Probability
| Source | TEX | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| Simulation only | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| Elo ratings | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| Market (implied) | 52.4% | 47.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TEX avg runs
4.9
Athletics avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TEX wins, Positive = Athletics wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 5.1% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% |
| Athletics | 5.2% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Wyatt Langford
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Andrew McCutchen
- Danny Jansen
- Josh Jung
- Ezequiel Duran
- Sam Haggerty
Athletics
- Jacob Wilson
- Nick Kurtz
- Brent Rooker
- Andy Ibáñez
- Max Muncy
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Austin Wynns
- Darell Hernaiz
- Denzel Clarke
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Elo Ratings
TEX: 1558
Athletics: 1532
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TEX | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -120 | +102 |
| Bovada | -120 | +100 |
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -120 | +100 |