WSN
49%
@
April 14, 2026
PIT
51%
RL
WSN +1.5 (-130) — 64% win, +8.5% edge
Pitching Matchup
WSN
Miles Mikolas
vs
PIT
Mitch Keller
Win Probability
| Source | WSN | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| Simulation only | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| Elo ratings | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| Market (implied) | 37.8% | 62.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
WSN avg runs
4.6
PIT avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = WSN wins, Positive = PIT wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSN | 6.1% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| PIT | 5.8% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
WSN
- James Wood
- Luis García Jr.
- Brady House
- Daylen Lile
- CJ Abrams
- Nasim Nuñez
- Jorbit Vivas
- Drew Millas
- Jacob Young
PIT
- Oneil Cruz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Ryan O'Hearn
- Nick Yorke
- Nick Gonzales
- Spencer Horwitz
- Konnor Griffin
- Henry Davis
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.83
BB: 1.0
K: 0.92
Weather
Forecast
76°F
Wind: 17 mph out
Elo Ratings
WSN: 1527
PIT: 1498
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | WSN | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +154 | -184 |
| Bovada | +154 | -186 |
| BetMGM | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings | +153 | -186 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |
Model Analysis
WSN is getting +1.5 at -130. The sim gives them a 64% chance of covering — 8.5% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.