ARI
46%
@
April 14, 2026
BAL
54%
Pitching Matchup
ARI
Merrill Kelly
vs
BAL
Trevor Rogers
Win Probability
| Source | ARI | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| Simulation only | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| Elo ratings | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| Market (implied) | 43.0% | 57.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ARI avg runs
5.0
BAL avg runs
4.9
Avg total
10.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ARI wins, Positive = BAL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 4.8% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% |
| BAL | 4.2% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Nolan Arenado
- Jose Fernandez
- Ildemaro Vargas
- James McCann
- Tim Tawa
- Jorge Barrosa
BAL
- Gunnar Henderson
- Taylor Ward
- Pete Alonso
- Samuel Basallo
- Dylan Beavers
- Leody Taveras
- Colton Cowser
- Coby Mayo
- Blaze Alexander
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.19
BB: 0.92
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
86°F
Wind: 7 mph out
Elo Ratings
ARI: 1529
BAL: 1535
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ARI | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +124 | -146 |
| Bovada | +124 | -148 |
| BetMGM | +120 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |