BOS
46%
@
April 14, 2026
MIN
54%
ML
MIN ML (+115) — 54% win, +6.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
BOS
Sonny Gray
vs
MIN
Mick Abel
Win Probability
| Source | BOS | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| Simulation only | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| Elo ratings | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| Market (implied) | 55.2% | 44.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BOS avg runs
5.1
MIN avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BOS wins, Positive = MIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 4.6% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.2% |
| MIN | 5.2% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Caleb Durbin
- Jarren Duran
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Trevor Story
- Marcelo Mayer
- Carlos Narváez
- Ceddanne Rafaela
MIN
- Byron Buxton
- Trevor Larnach
- Luke Keaschall
- Josh Bell
- Ryan Jeffers
- Matt Wallner
- Tristan Gray
- Brooks Lee
- James Outman
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.07
HR: 0.99
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
67°F
Wind: 5 mph in
Elo Ratings
BOS: 1502
MIN: 1544
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BOS | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -134 | +114 |
| Bovada | -136 | +114 |
| BetMGM | -140 | +115 |
| DraftKings | -136 | +113 |
| Caesars | -135 | +115 |
Model Analysis
MIN is getting plus-money at +115 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Mick Abel keeps MIN competitive on the mound against Sonny Gray.