CHC
46%
@
April 14, 2026
PHI
54%
Pitching Matchup
CHC
Riley Martin
vs
PHI
Aaron Nola
Win Probability
| Source | CHC | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| Simulation only | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| Elo ratings | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Market (implied) | 42.9% | 57.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CHC avg runs
5.7
PHI avg runs
5.4
Avg total
11.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CHC wins, Positive = PHI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 3.0% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% |
| PHI | 3.6% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CHC
- Nico Hoerner
- Michael Busch
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Seiya Suzuki
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Carson Kelly
- Moisés Ballesteros
- Dansby Swanson
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Adolis García
- Brandon Marsh
- Alec Bohm
- Bryson Stott
- J.T. Realmuto
- Justin Crawford
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.23
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
84°F
Wind: 9 mph cross
Elo Ratings
CHC: 1484
PHI: 1498
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CHC | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +124 | -146 |
| Bovada | +125 | -149 |
| BetMGM | +120 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |