KCR
42%
@
April 14, 2026
DET
58%
Pitching Matchup
KCR
Cole Ragans
vs
DET
Framber Valdez
Win Probability
| Source | KCR | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| Simulation only | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| Elo ratings | 35.9% | 64.1% |
| Market (implied) | 46.7% | 53.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
KCR avg runs
4.9
DET avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = KCR wins, Positive = DET wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCR | 4.8% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% |
| DET | 4.7% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
KCR
- Maikel Garcia
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Salvador Perez
- Lane Thomas
- Jonathan India
- Jac Caglianone
- Starling Marte
- Isaac Collins
DET
- Gleyber Torres
- Wenceel Pérez
- Riley Greene
- Spencer Torkelson
- Dillon Dingler
- Matt Vierling
- Jahmai Jones
- Jake Rogers
- Javier Báez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.07
BB: 1.05
K: 0.95
Weather
Forecast
78°F
Wind: 10 mph out
Elo Ratings
KCR: 1443
DET: 1520
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | KCR | DET |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +106 | -124 |
| Bovada | +105 | -125 |
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| DraftKings | +104 | -126 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |