MIA
44%
@
April 14, 2026
ATL
56%
Pitching Matchup
MIA
Max Meyer
vs
ATL
Reynaldo Lopez
Win Probability
| Source | MIA | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| Simulation only | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| Elo ratings | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| Market (implied) | 41.2% | 58.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIA avg runs
4.9
ATL avg runs
5.0
Avg total
9.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIA wins, Positive = ATL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 4.5% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% |
| ATL | 4.5% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIA
- Jakob Marsee
- Xavier Edwards
- Agustín Ramírez
- Liam Hicks
- Otto Lopez
- Owen Caissie
- Connor Norby
- Graham Pauley
- Javier Sanoja
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Mike Yastrzemski
- Ozzie Albies
- Dominic Smith
- Michael Harris II
- Mauricio Dubón
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.99
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
82°F
Wind: 8 mph cross
Elo Ratings
MIA: 1525
ATL: 1552
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIA | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +132 | -156 |
| Bovada | +135 | -161 |
| BetMGM | +130 | -155 |
| DraftKings | +135 | -163 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |