NYM
29%
@
April 14, 2026
LAD
71%
Pitching Matchup
NYM
Nolan McLean
vs
LAD
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Win Probability
| Source | NYM | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 28.8% | 71.2% |
| Simulation only | 39.3% | 60.7% |
| Elo ratings | 18.4% | 81.6% |
| Market (implied) | 35.4% | 64.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYM avg runs
5.2
LAD avg runs
6.0
Avg total
11.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYM wins, Positive = LAD wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 4.2% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% |
| LAD | 2.7% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Bo Bichette
- Jorge Polanco
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Brett Baty
- Marcus Semien
- Jared Young
- Francisco Alvarez
- Carson Benge
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Will Smith
- Freddie Freeman
- Max Muncy
- Teoscar Hernández
- Andy Pages
- Alex Freeland
- Hyeseong Kim
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.25
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
70°F
Wind: 11 mph cross
Elo Ratings
NYM: 1403
LAD: 1638
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYM | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +176 | -210 |
| Bovada | +173 | -213 |
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +179 | -219 |
| Caesars | +175 | -210 |