SFG
47%
@
April 14, 2026
CIN
53%
Pitching Matchup
SFG
Robbie Ray
vs
CIN
Brady Singer
Win Probability
| Source | SFG | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| Simulation only | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| Elo ratings | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Market (implied) | 50.1% | 49.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SFG avg runs
5.7
CIN avg runs
4.9
Avg total
10.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SFG wins, Positive = CIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFG | 3.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% |
| CIN | 4.2% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SFG
- Willy Adames
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
- Rafael Devers
- Casey Schmitt
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Heliot Ramos
- Patrick Bailey
- Harrison Bader
CIN
- Matt McLain
- Dane Myers
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Spencer Steer
- Tyler Stephenson
- 677956
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.31
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
73°F
Wind: 7 mph cross
Elo Ratings
SFG: 1438
CIN: 1467
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SFG | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -106 | -110 |
| Bovada | -115 | -105 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -112 | -108 |
| Caesars | -115 | -105 |