ARI
51%
@
April 15, 2026
BAL
49%
ML
ARI ML (+140) — 51% win, +7.3% edge
Pitching Matchup
ARI
Eduardo Rodriguez
vs
BAL
Kyle Bradish
Win Probability
| Source | ARI | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| Simulation only | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Elo ratings | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| Market (implied) | 40.6% | 59.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ARI avg runs
5.2
BAL avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ARI wins, Positive = BAL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 4.0% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.6% |
| BAL | 4.4% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Adrian Del Castillo
- Nolan Arenado
- Ildemaro Vargas
- Jose Fernandez
- Alek Thomas
- Jorge Barrosa
BAL
- Gunnar Henderson
- Taylor Ward
- Pete Alonso
- Leody Taveras
- Jeremiah Jackson
- Coby Mayo
- Blaze Alexander
- Johnathan Rodríguez
- Maverick Handley
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.2
BB: 0.92
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
89°F
Wind: 7 mph out
Elo Ratings
ARI: 1550
BAL: 1514
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ARI | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +132 | -156 |
| Bovada | +133 | -159 |
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 |
| DraftKings | +135 | -163 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |
Model Analysis
The market has ARI as a +140 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Eduardo Rodriguez keeps ARI competitive on the mound against Kyle Bradish. The sim projects ARI to plate 5.2 runs — expect some fireworks.