LAA
42%
@
April 15, 2026
NYY
58%
Pitching Matchup
LAA
Jack Kochanowicz
vs
NYY
Luis Gil
Win Probability
| Source | LAA | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| Simulation only | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| Elo ratings | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| Market (implied) | 36.7% | 63.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAA avg runs
5.1
NYY avg runs
5.5
Avg total
10.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAA wins, Positive = NYY wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 4.1% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% |
| NYY | 3.2% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Nolan Schanuel
- Jorge Soler
- Yoán Moncada
- Jo Adell
- Josh Lowe
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Adam Frazier
NYY
- Trent Grisham
- Ben Rice
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Austin Wells
- Ryan McMahon
- José Caballero
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.2
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
86°F
Wind: 10 mph out
Elo Ratings
LAA: 1499
NYY: 1522
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAA | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +160 | -190 |
| Bovada | +158 | -193 |
| BetMGM | +165 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +153 | -186 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |