SEA
45%
@
April 15, 2026
SDP
55%
Pitching Matchup
SEA
Emerson Hancock
vs
SDP
Randy Vasquez
Win Probability
| Source | SEA | SDP |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| Simulation only | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| Elo ratings | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| Market (implied) | 49.3% | 50.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SEA avg runs
5.2
SDP avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SEA wins, Positive = SDP wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 4.2% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% |
| SDP | 5.0% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SEA
- Brendan Donovan
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Luke Raley
- J.P. Crawford
- Dominic Canzone
- Cole Young
SDP
- Ramón Laureano
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Jackson Merrill
- Manny Machado
- Xander Bogaerts
- Gavin Sheets
- Nick Castellanos
- Freddy Fermin
- Jake Cronenworth
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.93
HR: 1.05
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Elo Ratings
SEA: 1514
SDP: 1561
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SEA | SDP |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -104 | -112 |
| Bovada | -105 | -115 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -110 | -110 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |