WSN
52%
@
April 15, 2026
PIT
48%
ML
WSN ML (+150) — 52% win, +8.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
WSN
Jake Irvin
vs
PIT
Win Probability
| Source | WSN | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| Simulation only | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| Elo ratings | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| Market (implied) | 38.4% | 61.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
WSN avg runs
4.7
PIT avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = WSN wins, Positive = PIT wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSN | 5.3% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| PIT | 5.5% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
WSN
- James Wood
- Luis García Jr.
- Brady House
- Daylen Lile
- CJ Abrams
- Jacob Young
- Jorbit Vivas
- Drew Millas
- Nasim Nuñez
PIT
- Oneil Cruz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Ryan O'Hearn
- Nick Yorke
- Nick Gonzales
- Spencer Horwitz
- Konnor Griffin
- Henry Davis
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.84
BB: 1.0
K: 0.92
Weather
Forecast
82°F
Wind: 13 mph out
Elo Ratings
WSN: 1546
PIT: 1479
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | WSN | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +150 | -178 |
| Bovada | +149 | -181 |
| BetMGM | +145 | -180 |
| DraftKings | +149 | -181 |
| Caesars | +150 | -178 |
Model Analysis
The market has WSN as a +150 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Wind blowing out — balls are carrying. Pitcher's park suppresses the long ball.