BOS
42%
@
April 15, 2026
MIN
58%
ML
MIN ML (+114) — 58% win, +8.4% edge
Pitching Matchup
BOS
Connelly Early
vs
MIN
Simeon Woods Richardson
Win Probability
| Source | BOS | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| Simulation only | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Elo ratings | 36.3% | 63.7% |
| Market (implied) | 54.7% | 45.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BOS avg runs
4.9
MIN avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BOS wins, Positive = MIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 4.8% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% |
| MIN | 5.4% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Caleb Durbin
- Wilyer Abreu
- Trevor Story
- Jarren Duran
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa
- Marcelo Mayer
- Connor Wong
- Ceddanne Rafaela
MIN
- Byron Buxton
- Austin Martin
- Luke Keaschall
- Ryan Jeffers
- Josh Bell
- Victor Caratini
- Matt Wallner
- Brooks Lee
- Ryan Kreidler
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.07
HR: 0.99
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
68°F
Wind: 5 mph cross
Elo Ratings
BOS: 1486
MIN: 1560
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BOS | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -134 | +114 |
| Bovada | -130 | +108 |
| BetMGM | -130 | +110 |
| DraftKings | -131 | +109 |
| Caesars | -130 | +110 |
Model Analysis
MIN is getting plus-money at +114 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Simeon Woods Richardson keeps MIN competitive on the mound against Connelly Early. MIN holds a commanding 74-point Elo edge.