CHC
50%
@
April 15, 2026
PHI
50%
Pitching Matchup
CHC
Shota Imanaga
vs
PHI
Jesus Luzardo
Win Probability
| Source | CHC | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Simulation only | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| Elo ratings | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| Market (implied) | 44.0% | 56.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CHC avg runs
5.4
PHI avg runs
5.1
Avg total
10.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CHC wins, Positive = PHI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 3.7% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.7% |
| PHI | 3.8% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CHC
- Nico Hoerner
- Alex Bregman
- Seiya Suzuki
- Ian Happ
- Carson Kelly
- Dansby Swanson
- Miguel Amaya
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Matt Shaw
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Adolis García
- Alec Bohm
- Edmundo Sosa
- J.T. Realmuto
- Otto Kemp
- Dylan Moore
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.24
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
87°F
Wind: 7 mph cross
Elo Ratings
CHC: 1506
PHI: 1477
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CHC | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +122 | -144 |
| Bovada | +120 | -143 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |