CLE
49%
@
April 15, 2026
STL
51%
Pitching Matchup
CLE
Slade Cecconi
vs
STL
Dustin May
Win Probability
| Source | CLE | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| Simulation only | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| Elo ratings | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| Market (implied) | 49.1% | 50.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CLE avg runs
4.3
STL avg runs
4.2
Avg total
8.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CLE wins, Positive = STL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 7.1% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| STL | 6.6% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Chase DeLauter
- José Ramírez
- Kyle Manzardo
- George Valera
- Angel Martínez
- Juan Brito
- Austin Hedges
- Brayan Rocchio
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Jordan Walker
- Nolan Gorman
- Masyn Winn
- Nathan Church
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.89
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
69°F
Wind: 6 mph cross
Elo Ratings
CLE: 1557
STL: 1523
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CLE | STL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -102 | -116 |
| Bovada | -108 | -112 |
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| DraftKings | -108 | -112 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |