KCR
40%
@
April 15, 2026
DET
60%
Pitching Matchup
KCR
Seth Lugo
vs
DET
Jack Flaherty
Win Probability
| Source | KCR | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| Simulation only | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| Elo ratings | 32.3% | 67.7% |
| Market (implied) | 45.9% | 54.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
KCR avg runs
5.1
DET avg runs
4.9
Avg total
10.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = KCR wins, Positive = DET wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCR | 4.3% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% |
| DET | 4.5% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
KCR
- Maikel Garcia
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Salvador Perez
- Carter Jensen
- Jonathan India
- Jac Caglianone
- Michael Massey
- Kyle Isbel
DET
- Kevin McGonigle
- Gleyber Torres
- Colt Keith
- Riley Greene
- Dillon Dingler
- Kerry Carpenter
- Spencer Torkelson
- Wenceel Pérez
- Javier Báez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.05
BB: 1.05
K: 0.95
Weather
Forecast
69°F
Wind: 9 mph out
Elo Ratings
KCR: 1429
DET: 1534
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | KCR | DET |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +112 | -132 |
| Bovada | +111 | -133 |
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |