MIA
41%
@
April 15, 2026
ATL
59%
Pitching Matchup
MIA
Chris Paddack
vs
ATL
Bryce Elder
Win Probability
| Source | MIA | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 41.1% | 58.9% |
| Simulation only | 44.1% | 55.9% |
| Elo ratings | 38.1% | 61.9% |
| Market (implied) | 39.3% | 60.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIA avg runs
4.8
ATL avg runs
5.0
Avg total
9.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIA wins, Positive = ATL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 5.3% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| ATL | 4.0% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIA
- Jakob Marsee
- Xavier Edwards
- Agustín Ramírez
- Liam Hicks
- Otto Lopez
- Owen Caissie
- Connor Norby
- Javier Sanoja
- Graham Pauley
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Mike Yastrzemski
- Ozzie Albies
- Dominic Smith
- Michael Harris II
- Mauricio Dubón
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.99
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
83°F
Wind: 8 mph in
Elo Ratings
MIA: 1508
ATL: 1568
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIA | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +140 | -166 |
| Bovada | +147 | -179 |
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 |
| DraftKings | +144 | -175 |
| Caesars | +143 | -170 |