NYM
28%
@
April 15, 2026
LAD
72%
Pitching Matchup
NYM
Clay Holmes
vs
LAD
Shohei Ohtani
Win Probability
| Source | NYM | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 28.5% | 71.5% |
| Simulation only | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| Elo ratings | 17.2% | 82.8% |
| Market (implied) | 33.4% | 66.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYM avg runs
5.4
LAD avg runs
6.0
Avg total
11.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYM wins, Positive = LAD wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 4.0% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% |
| LAD | 2.4% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Jorge Polanco
- Bo Bichette
- Francisco Alvarez
- Brett Baty
- Mark Vientos
- Marcus Semien
- Carson Benge
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Will Smith
- Freddie Freeman
- Teoscar Hernández
- Max Muncy
- Andy Pages
- Hyeseong Kim
- Alex Freeland
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.26
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
73°F
Wind: 9 mph cross
Elo Ratings
NYM: 1395
LAD: 1645
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYM | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +184 | -220 |
| Bovada | +185 | -225 |
| BetMGM | +190 | -235 |
| DraftKings | +189 | -232 |
| Caesars | +185 | -225 |