SFG
44%
@
April 15, 2026
CIN
56%
Pitching Matchup
SFG
Tyler Mahle
vs
CIN
Rhett Lowder
Win Probability
| Source | SFG | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| Simulation only | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| Elo ratings | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| Market (implied) | 50.4% | 49.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SFG avg runs
5.8
CIN avg runs
5.2
Avg total
11.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SFG wins, Positive = CIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFG | 2.8% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.5% |
| CIN | 4.1% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SFG
- Willy Adames
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
- Rafael Devers
- Casey Schmitt
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Heliot Ramos
- Patrick Bailey
- Harrison Bader
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Nathaniel Lowe
- Spencer Steer
- Dane Myers
- P.J. Higgins
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.34
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
84°F
Wind: 12 mph in
Elo Ratings
SFG: 1421
CIN: 1483
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SFG | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -110 | -106 |
| Bovada | -112 | -108 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -112 | -108 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |