TBR
57%
@
April 15, 2026
CWS
43%
Pitching Matchup
TBR
Jesse Scholtens
vs
CWS
Sean Burke
Win Probability
| Source | TBR | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| Simulation only | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| Elo ratings | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| Market (implied) | 51.4% | 48.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TBR avg runs
4.7
CWS avg runs
4.2
Avg total
8.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TBR wins, Positive = CWS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | 5.6% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% |
| CWS | 6.5% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 15.1% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TBR
- Chandler Simpson
- Junior Caminero
- Jonathan Aranda
- Yandy Díaz
- Jake Fraley
- Ben Williamson
- Cedric Mullins
- Taylor Walls
- Hunter Feduccia
CWS
- Chase Meidroth
- Munetaka Murakami
- Miguel Vargas
- Colson Montgomery
- Andrew Benintendi
- Dustin Harris
- Edgar Quero
- Luisangel Acuña
- Tristan Peters
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.97
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
65°F
Wind: 8 mph in
Elo Ratings
TBR: 1516
CWS: 1394
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TBR | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -112 | -104 |
| Bovada | -119 | -101 |
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings | -118 | -102 |
| Caesars | -120 | +100 |