TEX
45%
@
April 15, 2026
Athletics
55%
Pitching Matchup
TEX
Kumar Rocker
vs
Athletics
J.T. Ginn
Win Probability
| Source | TEX | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Simulation only | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| Elo ratings | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| Market (implied) | 47.6% | 52.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TEX avg runs
5.0
Athletics avg runs
4.9
Avg total
9.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TEX wins, Positive = Athletics wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 4.4% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.3% |
| Athletics | 4.9% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 13.4% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Evan Carter
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Joc Pederson
- Kyle Higashioka
- Josh Smith
- Josh Jung
- Ezequiel Duran
Athletics
- Lawrence Butler
- Nick Kurtz
- Shea Langeliers
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Jacob Wilson
- Jeff McNeil
- Max Muncy
- Carlos Cortes
- Denzel Clarke
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Elo Ratings
TEX: 1539
Athletics: 1552
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TEX | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -102 | -116 |
| Bovada | +103 | -123 |
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +102 | -122 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |