KCR
39%
@
April 16, 2026
DET
61%
ML
DET ML (+102) — 61% win, +8.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
KCR
Kris Bubic
vs
DET
Keider Montero
Win Probability
| Source | KCR | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 38.9% | 61.2% |
| Simulation only | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Elo ratings | 29.2% | 70.8% |
| Market (implied) | 52.2% | 47.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
KCR avg runs
5.1
DET avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = KCR wins, Positive = DET wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCR | 4.4% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% |
| DET | 4.4% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
KCR
- Maikel Garcia
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Salvador Perez
- Carter Jensen
- Jonathan India
- Michael Massey
- Jac Caglianone
- Kyle Isbel
DET
- Gleyber Torres
- Matt Vierling
- Kevin McGonigle
- Dillon Dingler
- Wenceel Pérez
- Riley Greene
- Spencer Torkelson
- Jahmai Jones
- Javier Báez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.05
K: 0.95
Weather
Forecast
64°F
Wind: 6 mph out
Elo Ratings
KCR: 1416
DET: 1546
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | KCR | DET |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -120 | +102 |
| Bovada | -118 | -102 |
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -120 | +100 |
Model Analysis
DET is getting plus-money at +102 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Keider Montero keeps DET competitive on the mound against Kris Bubic. DET holds a commanding 130-point Elo edge.