LAA
38%
@
April 16, 2026
NYY
62%
RL
LAA +1.5 (+116) — 55% win, +8.9% edge
Pitching Matchup
LAA
Walbert Urena
vs
NYY
Max Fried
Win Probability
| Source | LAA | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Simulation only | 38.3% | 61.7% |
| Elo ratings | 38.6% | 61.4% |
| Market (implied) | 28.9% | 71.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAA avg runs
4.7
NYY avg runs
5.5
Avg total
10.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAA wins, Positive = NYY wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 5.3% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% |
| NYY | 3.2% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Yoán Moncada
- Jo Adell
- Vaughn Grissom
- Nolan Schanuel
- Travis d'Arnaud
- Oswald Peraza
- Bryce Teodosio
NYY
- Trent Grisham
- Ben Rice
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- José Caballero
- J.C. Escarra
- Ryan McMahon
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.19
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
79°F
Wind: 10 mph cross
Elo Ratings
LAA: 1482
NYY: 1539
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAA | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +225 | -275 |
| Bovada | +225 | -280 |
| BetMGM | +220 | -275 |
| DraftKings | +234 | -293 |
| Caesars | +235 | -292 |
Model Analysis
LAA is getting +1.5 at +116. The sim gives them a 55% chance of covering — 8.9% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.