TBR
60%
@
April 16, 2026
CWS
40%
Pitching Matchup
TBR
Steven Matz
vs
CWS
Jordan Leasure
Win Probability
| Source | TBR | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 59.9% | 40.2% |
| Simulation only | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| Elo ratings | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| Market (implied) | 53.8% | 46.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TBR avg runs
4.6
CWS avg runs
4.0
Avg total
8.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TBR wins, Positive = CWS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | 5.6% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| CWS | 7.6% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 15.4% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TBR
- Yandy Díaz
- Jonathan Aranda
- Junior Caminero
- Ryan Vilade
- Ben Williamson
- Chandler Simpson
- Jonny DeLuca
- Nick Fortes
- Taylor Walls
CWS
- Miguel Vargas
- Chase Meidroth
- Munetaka Murakami
- Everson Pereira
- Edgar Quero
- Colson Montgomery
- Tanner Murray
- Derek Hill
- Luisangel Acuña
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.97
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
67°F
Wind: 5 mph cross
Elo Ratings
TBR: 1530
CWS: 1380
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TBR | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -124 | +106 |
| Bovada | -124 | +104 |
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 |
| DraftKings | -131 | +109 |
| Caesars | -130 | +110 |