WSN
49%
@
April 16, 2026
PIT
51%
ML
WSN ML (+135) — 49% win, +7.0% edge
Pitching Matchup
WSN
Foster Griffin
vs
PIT
Braxton Ashcraft
Win Probability
| Source | WSN | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| Simulation only | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| Elo ratings | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Market (implied) | 41.4% | 58.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
WSN avg runs
4.6
PIT avg runs
4.3
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = WSN wins, Positive = PIT wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSN | 6.1% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| PIT | 6.2% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 13.9% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
WSN
- James Wood
- Luis García Jr.
- Brady House
- Daylen Lile
- CJ Abrams
- Jacob Young
- Jorbit Vivas
- Drew Millas
- Nasim Nuñez
PIT
- Oneil Cruz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Marcell Ozuna
- Nick Yorke
- Nick Gonzales
- Konnor Griffin
- Jake Mangum
- Henry Davis
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.81
BB: 1.0
K: 0.92
Weather
Forecast
66°F
Wind: 11 mph cross
Elo Ratings
WSN: 1524
PIT: 1501
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | WSN | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +134 | -158 |
| Bovada | +127 | -152 |
| BetMGM | +130 | -155 |
| DraftKings | +135 | -163 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |
Model Analysis
The market has WSN as a +135 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Foster Griffin keeps WSN competitive on the mound against Braxton Ashcraft. Pitcher's park suppresses the long ball.