BAL
43%
@
April 16, 2026
CLE
57%
Pitching Matchup
BAL
Shane Baz
vs
CLE
Parker Messick
Win Probability
| Source | BAL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| Simulation only | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| Elo ratings | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| Market (implied) | 46.9% | 53.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BAL avg runs
4.2
CLE avg runs
4.2
Avg total
8.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BAL wins, Positive = CLE wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 6.9% | 11.7% | 13.6% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| CLE | 6.7% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BAL
- Taylor Ward
- Gunnar Henderson
- Pete Alonso
- Johnathan Rodríguez
- Weston Wilson
- Jeremiah Jackson
- Coby Mayo
- Maverick Handley
- Blaze Alexander
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Chase DeLauter
- José Ramírez
- Kyle Manzardo
- George Valera
- Juan Brito
- Daniel Schneemann
- Bo Naylor
- Brayan Rocchio
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.91
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
63°F
Wind: 5 mph cross
Elo Ratings
BAL: 1495
CLE: 1537
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BAL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +108 | -126 |
| Bovada | +103 | -123 |
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +104 | -126 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |