SEA
42%
@
April 16, 2026
SDP
58%
ML
SDP ML (+102) — 58% win, +7.5% edge
Pitching Matchup
SEA
Luis Castillo
vs
SDP
Walker Buehler
Win Probability
| Source | SEA | SDP |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| Simulation only | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Elo ratings | 35.7% | 64.3% |
| Market (implied) | 52.2% | 47.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SEA avg runs
5.1
SDP avg runs
4.9
Avg total
10.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SEA wins, Positive = SDP wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 4.4% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% |
| SDP | 4.3% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SEA
- Brendan Donovan
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Luke Raley
- J.P. Crawford
- Dominic Canzone
- Cole Young
SDP
- Ramón Laureano
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Jackson Merrill
- Manny Machado
- Xander Bogaerts
- Gavin Sheets
- Nick Castellanos
- Luis Campusano
- Jake Cronenworth
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.93
HR: 1.05
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Elo Ratings
SEA: 1498
SDP: 1577
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SEA | SDP |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -120 | +102 |
| Bovada | -118 | -102 |
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings | -122 | +102 |
| Caesars | -120 | +100 |
Model Analysis
SDP is getting plus-money at +102 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Walker Buehler keeps SDP competitive on the mound against Luis Castillo. SDP holds a commanding 79-point Elo edge.