SFG
40%
@
April 16, 2026
CIN
60%
Pitching Matchup
SFG
Landen Roupp
vs
CIN
Chase Burns
Win Probability
| Source | SFG | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| Simulation only | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| Elo ratings | 34.0% | 66.0% |
| Market (implied) | 46.2% | 53.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SFG avg runs
5.5
CIN avg runs
5.3
Avg total
10.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SFG wins, Positive = CIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFG | 3.3% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% |
| CIN | 3.6% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SFG
- Willy Adames
- Luis Arraez
- Casey Schmitt
- Rafael Devers
- Matt Chapman
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Heliot Ramos
- Patrick Bailey
- Drew Gilbert
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Nathaniel Lowe
- Spencer Steer
- Will Benson
- P.J. Higgins
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.33
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
78°F
Wind: 13 mph in
Elo Ratings
SFG: 1407
CIN: 1498
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SFG | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +107 | -128 |
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| Caesars | +110 | -130 |