TEX
42%
@
April 16, 2026
Athletics
58%
ML
Athletics ML (+100) — 58% win, +7.2% edge
Pitching Matchup
TEX
Jack Leiter
vs
Athletics
Jacob Lopez
Win Probability
| Source | TEX | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| Simulation only | 44.1% | 55.9% |
| Elo ratings | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| Market (implied) | 52.0% | 48.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TEX avg runs
5.0
Athletics avg runs
4.9
Avg total
9.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TEX wins, Positive = Athletics wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 4.8% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% |
| Athletics | 4.2% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Wyatt Langford
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Andrew McCutchen
- Josh Jung
- Josh Smith
- Danny Jansen
- Ezequiel Duran
Athletics
- Lawrence Butler
- Nick Kurtz
- Shea Langeliers
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Jacob Wilson
- Jeff McNeil
- Max Muncy
- Carlos Cortes
- Denzel Clarke
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Elo Ratings
TEX: 1521
Athletics: 1569
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TEX | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -118 | +100 |
| Bovada | -120 | +100 |
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings | -118 | -102 |
| Caesars | -120 | +100 |
Model Analysis
Athletics is getting plus-money at +100 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Jacob Lopez toes the rubber against Jack Leiter.