TOR
49%
@
April 16, 2026
MIL
51%
Pitching Matchup
TOR
Patrick Corbin
vs
MIL
Brandon Sproat
Win Probability
| Source | TOR | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| Simulation only | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| Elo ratings | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Market (implied) | 46.0% | 54.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TOR avg runs
4.6
MIL avg runs
4.0
Avg total
8.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TOR wins, Positive = MIL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 5.5% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| MIL | 7.7% | 12.1% | 14.2% | 15.4% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TOR
- Nathan Lukes
- Daulton Varsho
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Jesús Sánchez
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Ernie Clement
- Andrés Giménez
- Eloy Jiménez
- Brandon Valenzuela
MIL
- Brice Turang
- Luis Rengifo
- William Contreras
- Gary Sánchez
- Brandon Lockridge
- Luis Matos
- Sal Frelick
- Blake Perkins
- Joey Ortiz
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.13
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
TOR: 1498
MIL: 1496
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TOR | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +108 | -126 |
| Bovada | +111 | -133 |
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| Caesars | +110 | -130 |