CWS
32%
@
April 17, 2026
Athletics
68%
ML
Athletics ML (-156) — 68% win, +8.5% edge
Pitching Matchup
CWS
Davis Martin
vs
Athletics
Aaron Civale
Win Probability
| Source | CWS | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 31.5% | 68.5% |
| Simulation only | 39.2% | 60.8% |
| Elo ratings | 23.8% | 76.2% |
| Market (implied) | 40.9% | 59.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CWS avg runs
4.3
Athletics avg runs
4.9
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CWS wins, Positive = Athletics wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 6.7% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% |
| Athletics | 4.7% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CWS
- Chase Meidroth
- Munetaka Murakami
- Miguel Vargas
- Colson Montgomery
- Andrew Benintendi
- Dustin Harris
- Tristan Peters
- Reese McGuire
- Luisangel Acuña
Athletics
- Lawrence Butler
- Nick Kurtz
- Shea Langeliers
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Jacob Wilson
- Jeff McNeil
- Max Muncy
- Carlos Cortes
- Denzel Clarke
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Elo Ratings
CWS: 1367
Athletics: 1546
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CWS | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +132 | -156 |
| Bovada | +137 | -163 |
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 |
| DraftKings | +135 | -163 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |
Model Analysis
Athletics is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Aaron Civale is a big pitching edge over Davis Martin. Athletics holds a commanding 179-point Elo edge.