NYM
35%
@
April 17, 2026
CHC
65%
ML
CHC ML (-140) — 64% win, +7.2% edge
Pitching Matchup
NYM
Kodai Senga
vs
CHC
Edward Cabrera
Win Probability
| Source | NYM | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| Simulation only | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Elo ratings | 28.5% | 71.5% |
| Market (implied) | 43.5% | 56.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYM avg runs
4.3
CHC avg runs
4.6
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYM wins, Positive = CHC wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 6.9% | 11.0% | 13.4% | 14.4% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| CHC | 5.0% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 13.9% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Brett Baty
- Bo Bichette
- Francisco Alvarez
- Carson Benge
- Marcus Semien
- MJ Melendez
- Tommy Pham
CHC
- Nico Hoerner
- Michael Busch
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Seiya Suzuki
- Moisés Ballesteros
- Carson Kelly
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Dansby Swanson
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.92
HR: 0.93
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Weather
Forecast
71°F
Wind: 9 mph in
Elo Ratings
NYM: 1389
CHC: 1525
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYM | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +120 | -142 |
| Bovada | +120 | -143 |
| BetMGM | +115 | -140 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |
Model Analysis
CHC is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Edward Cabrera toes the rubber against Kodai Senga. CHC holds a commanding 136-point Elo edge.