SDP
57%
@
April 17, 2026
LAA
43%
ML
SDP ML (+117) — 56% win, +8.2% edge
Pitching Matchup
SDP
Matt Waldron
vs
LAA
Jose Soriano
Win Probability
| Source | SDP | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Simulation only | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| Elo ratings | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| Market (implied) | 44.5% | 55.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SDP avg runs
5.3
LAA avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SDP wins, Positive = LAA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDP | 3.9% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| LAA | 6.1% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SDP
- Ramón Laureano
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Jackson Merrill
- Manny Machado
- Xander Bogaerts
- Gavin Sheets
- Nick Castellanos
- Luis Campusano
- Jake Cronenworth
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Nolan Schanuel
- Jo Adell
- Yoán Moncada
- Oswald Peraza
- Josh Lowe
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Adam Frazier
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.06
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
74°F
Wind: 10 mph in
Elo Ratings
SDP: 1591
LAA: 1506
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SDP | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +116 | -136 |
| Bovada | +117 | -140 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |
Model Analysis
SDP is getting plus-money at +117 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Matt Waldron keeps SDP competitive on the mound against Jose Soriano. The sim projects SDP to plate 5.3 runs — expect some fireworks.