SFG
41%
@
April 17, 2026
WSN
59%
ML
WSN ML (+136) — 59% win, +10.4% edge
Pitching Matchup
SFG
Logan Webb
vs
WSN
Zack Littell
Win Probability
| Source | SFG | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| Simulation only | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| Elo ratings | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| Market (implied) | 58.9% | 41.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SFG avg runs
5.0
WSN avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SFG wins, Positive = WSN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFG | 4.9% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| WSN | 5.4% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 13.9% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SFG
- Willy Adames
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
- Rafael Devers
- Casey Schmitt
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Heliot Ramos
- Patrick Bailey
- Harrison Bader
WSN
- James Wood
- Luis García Jr.
- Brady House
- Daylen Lile
- CJ Abrams
- Jacob Young
- Jorbit Vivas
- Drew Millas
- Nasim Nuñez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.98
BB: 0.95
K: 0.95
Elo Ratings
SFG: 1432
WSN: 1544
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SFG | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -162 | +136 |
| Bovada | -160 | +134 |
| BetMGM | -160 | +135 |
| DraftKings | -156 | +129 |
| Caesars | -155 | +130 |
Model Analysis
The market has WSN as a +136 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Zack Littell keeps WSN competitive on the mound against Logan Webb. WSN holds a commanding 112-point Elo edge.