TEX
50%
@
April 17, 2026
SEA
50%
Pitching Matchup
TEX
Jacob deGrom
vs
SEA
Logan Gilbert
Win Probability
| Source | TEX | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| Simulation only | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Elo ratings | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| Market (implied) | 44.6% | 55.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TEX avg runs
4.0
SEA avg runs
4.0
Avg total
8.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TEX wins, Positive = SEA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 8.4% | 11.7% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| SEA | 7.3% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Wyatt Langford
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Evan Carter
- Joc Pederson
- Josh Jung
- Josh Smith
- Danny Jansen
SEA
- Brendan Donovan
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Luke Raley
- J.P. Crawford
- Dominic Canzone
- Cole Young
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.83
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
TEX: 1545
SEA: 1484
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TEX | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +116 | -134 |
| Bovada | +115 | -138 |
| BetMGM | +120 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| Caesars | +110 | -130 |