TOR
40%
@
April 17, 2026
ARI
60%
Pitching Matchup
TOR
Eric Lauer
vs
ARI
Mike Soroka
Win Probability
| Source | TOR | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Simulation only | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| Elo ratings | 34.3% | 65.7% |
| Market (implied) | 44.6% | 55.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TOR avg runs
4.4
ARI avg runs
4.2
Avg total
8.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TOR wins, Positive = ARI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 6.5% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% |
| ARI | 6.4% | 11.0% | 13.4% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TOR
- Nathan Lukes
- Daulton Varsho
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Jesús Sánchez
- Lenyn Sosa
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Andrés Giménez
- Ernie Clement
- Brandon Valenzuela
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Jose Fernandez
- Nolan Arenado
- Ildemaro Vargas
- James McCann
- Tim Tawa
- Jorge Barrosa
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.8
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
TOR: 1480
ARI: 1568
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TOR | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +112 | -132 |
| Bovada | +115 | -138 |
| BetMGM | +118 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |