ATL
56%
@
April 17, 2026
PHI
44%
Pitching Matchup
ATL
Martin Perez
vs
PHI
Taijuan Walker
Win Probability
| Source | ATL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| Simulation only | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| Elo ratings | 64.2% | 35.8% |
| Market (implied) | 50.3% | 49.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ATL avg runs
5.6
PHI avg runs
5.3
Avg total
10.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ATL wins, Positive = PHI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 3.1% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% |
| PHI | 3.6% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Ozzie Albies
- Mike Yastrzemski
- Dominic Smith
- Mauricio Dubón
- Michael Harris II
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Adolis García
- Edmundo Sosa
- J.T. Realmuto
- Alec Bohm
- Brandon Marsh
- Otto Kemp
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.22
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
78°F
Wind: 7 mph cross
Elo Ratings
ATL: 1583
PHI: 1457
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ATL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -108 | -108 |
| Bovada | -115 | -105 |
| BetMGM | -115 | -105 |
| DraftKings | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -115 | -105 |