BAL
43%
@
April 17, 2026
CLE
57%
Pitching Matchup
BAL
Chris Bassitt
vs
CLE
Tanner Bibee
Win Probability
| Source | BAL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Simulation only | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| Elo ratings | 36.3% | 63.7% |
| Market (implied) | 44.2% | 55.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BAL avg runs
4.4
CLE avg runs
4.1
Avg total
8.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BAL wins, Positive = CLE wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 6.5% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 14.5% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% |
| CLE | 7.1% | 11.1% | 14.1% | 14.8% | 13.7% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BAL
- Gunnar Henderson
- Taylor Ward
- Pete Alonso
- Samuel Basallo
- Dylan Beavers
- Leody Taveras
- Colton Cowser
- Jeremiah Jackson
- Blaze Alexander
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Chase DeLauter
- José Ramírez
- Kyle Manzardo
- George Valera
- Angel Martínez
- Juan Brito
- Bo Naylor
- Brayan Rocchio
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.91
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
61°F
Wind: 4 mph out
Elo Ratings
BAL: 1479
CLE: 1553
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BAL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +114 | -134 |
| Bovada | +115 | -138 |
| BetMGM | +120 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -143 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |