CIN
42%
@
April 17, 2026
MIN
58%
Pitching Matchup
CIN
Brandon Williamson
vs
MIN
Joe Ryan
Win Probability
| Source | CIN | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| Simulation only | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| Elo ratings | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| Market (implied) | 38.4% | 61.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CIN avg runs
4.5
MIN avg runs
4.5
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CIN wins, Positive = MIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 6.2% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| MIN | 5.5% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Spencer Steer
- Rece Hinds
- Tyler Stephenson
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
MIN
- Byron Buxton
- Austin Martin
- Luke Keaschall
- Ryan Jeffers
- Josh Bell
- Victor Caratini
- Matt Wallner
- Brooks Lee
- Ryan Kreidler
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.07
HR: 0.95
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
45°F
Wind: 13 mph in
Elo Ratings
CIN: 1472
MIN: 1535
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CIN | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +150 | -178 |
| Bovada | +148 | -180 |
| BetMGM | +145 | -180 |
| DraftKings | +149 | -181 |
| Caesars | +150 | -178 |