DET
49%
@
April 17, 2026
BOS
51%
Pitching Matchup
DET
Casey Mize
vs
BOS
Ranger Suarez
Win Probability
| Source | DET | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| Simulation only | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| Elo ratings | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| Market (implied) | 45.9% | 54.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
DET avg runs
4.8
BOS avg runs
4.9
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = DET wins, Positive = BOS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 5.8% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| BOS | 4.4% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
DET
- Gleyber Torres
- Kevin McGonigle
- Jahmai Jones
- Dillon Dingler
- Riley Greene
- Matt Vierling
- Spencer Torkelson
- Wenceel Pérez
- Javier Báez
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Caleb Durbin
- Jarren Duran
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Trevor Story
- Marcelo Mayer
- Carlos Narváez
- Ceddanne Rafaela
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.83
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
52°F
Wind: 5 mph cross
Elo Ratings
DET: 1558
BOS: 1511
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | DET | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +108 | -126 |
| Bovada | +112 | -134 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| DraftKings | +104 | -126 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |