KCR
37%
@
April 17, 2026
NYY
63%
Pitching Matchup
KCR
Michael Wacha
vs
NYY
Cam Schlittler
Win Probability
| Source | KCR | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 37.2% | 62.8% |
| Simulation only | 42.7% | 57.3% |
| Elo ratings | 31.7% | 68.3% |
| Market (implied) | 37.3% | 62.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
KCR avg runs
5.1
NYY avg runs
5.4
Avg total
10.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = KCR wins, Positive = NYY wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCR | 4.4% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.2% |
| NYY | 3.3% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
KCR
- Maikel Garcia
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Salvador Perez
- Carter Jensen
- Jonathan India
- Jac Caglianone
- Michael Massey
- Kyle Isbel
NYY
- Trent Grisham
- Ben Rice
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Austin Wells
- José Caballero
- Ryan McMahon
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.17
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
74°F
Wind: 8 mph in
Elo Ratings
KCR: 1405
NYY: 1515
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | KCR | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +154 | -184 |
| Bovada | +156 | -190 |
| BetMGM | +154 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +159 | -193 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |